A country in turmoil, with the upcoming vote feeling like a referendum on the strongman who has been ruling Serbia for the past 12 years. On one side is the party of former President Aleksandar Vučić, “United Serbia”; on the other, the “Student List”. This is the atmosphere in Serbia on the eve of the early parliamentary elections scheduled for this Sunday, 25 October.
(Photo: Adnan Čerimagič)
A head-to-head contest is expected. “For the first time since 2014, Vučić faces a serious alternative, the ‘Student List’, and there is a real risk that he could lose the election”, Adnan Čerimagič, senior analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative think tank, told SIR news agency. Polls are not considered reliable given the complexity of the political situation. However, according to a survey conducted on 20 October by New Serbian Political Thought, 44.5% of voters would support the Student List, while Vučić would receive 42.7% of the vote. In any case, Čerimagič said, “a head-to-head contest is expected as students have campaigned extensively throughout the country with marches, rallies and demonstrations. But Vučić’s party has also demonstrated its ability to mobilise its own voters”. For this reason, “it is difficult to make reliable predictions”.
Two years of protests, but no leadership. It all began with the collapse of the canopy at Novi Sad railway station on 1 November 2024, which killed 16 people. Since then, students have mobilised, demanding justice and accountability, but the investigations have yielded no results. “Discontent has grown, mobilising popular energy that first led to the government’s resignation and, two years later, to the calling of early parliamentary elections”, Čerimagič explained. The 250 candidates on the “Student List” include professors, farmers, human rights activists, environmentalists and other prominent figures. They were approved at plenary sessions held by individual university faculties. The list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, but this does not necessarily mean that he would become prime minister in the event of victory.
Corruption and a change of government. “The students have focused on corruption, the rule of law and firm opposition to Aleksandar Vučić’s government”, the analyst said. Their priorities also include promoting transparency, creating greater press freedom and launching education reform. Čerimagič noted that the movement encompasses sharply differing positions on Kosovo and relations with the United States, Russia and the European Union. “The big question is: once in power, will they manage to stay united?” In the analyst’s view, a government led by them “would be very chaotic and would not bring about major changes immediately”.
The strongman of Belgrade. A protégé of Slobodan Milošević, Aleksandar Vučić first served as prime minister and then as President of the Republic for two terms. He has faced no serious rivals over the past 12 years. On the international stage, he has also consistently positioned himself between China, a major investor in the country, and Russia, with which Serbia has traditionally maintained close ties, including as an energy supplier. For now, the EU accession process remains stalled, but the leader of “United Serbia” has always kept the door open to Brussels. The fact remains that, in early October, Vučić resigned from the presidency, six months before the end of his term, in order to lead his party in person, hoping to be re-elected as prime minister.
The fairness of the vote has come under intense scrutiny. Many international observers, including the EU mission in Belgrade, reported widespread irregularities, including arrests, pressure on voters, altered electoral registers and scarce polling stations abroad. “It will be crucial to see whether the losing side can accept the result”, analyst Čerimagič said. “I cannot see Aleksandar Vučić admitting defeat, while the ‘Student List’ genuinely believes it has a chance to win and, in my opinion, is unlikely to accept the alternative”. Consequently, post-election violence cannot be ruled out.
Cardinal Nemet’s appeal. Against this backdrop, Cardinal Ladislav Nemet, Archbishop of Belgrade, has issued an appeal in a special video message ahead of the vote, expressing the hope “that the elections will take place in an atmosphere of peace and without violence”. The cardinal said that the faithful should form their political judgement “in the light of the values of the Gospel and the social doctrine of the Catholic Church” in order to elect “a parliament that helps build a just state, guides us along the path of peace and respects the dignity of every person”.
What is happening on Europe’s streets? The mobilisation of Serbian students, which began in response to a tragic news event, subsequently succeeded in engaging a broad section of public opinion on issues including political transparency, institutional accountability and the call for justice. Social conditions, education and the right to work have also become part of the debate. Nevertheless, as noted above, divisions within the movement remain. There is, however, no doubt about the broad support that has rallied around the students, extending well beyond young people and the student community itself. Ahead of the outcome of the vote on Sunday 25 October, a message of constructive engagement is coming from young people in Serbia, at a time when the rest of Europe is experiencing very different situations. Italy, France, Spain, Belgium and other countries are witnessing protests in the streets, often escalating into violence. These protests nevertheless highlight a deep sense of unease among Europe’s younger generations who are struggling to be heard and to receive credible answers.