The Catholic vote in the 2026 US midterms swung from 59% for Trump in 2024 to a 50-49 tie. Hispanics and the young backed Democrats, whites Republicans.
The post US midterms: Catholic vote swings from 59% for Trump to a dead heat. Hispanics and the young back Democrats first appeared on AgenSIR.Fifty to forty-nine. That was the Catholic verdict in the midterm elections of Tuesday 3 November, which handed the Democrats control of both the House and the Senate. According to the exit poll conducted by NBC News and other outlets in 45 states, Catholics – one voter in five – backed Democratic candidates by 50% to 49%. Two years ago, in the same survey, Donald Trump took 59% of the Catholic vote to Kamala Harris’s 39%. On the same night the Democrats took at least seven Senate seats from the Republicans, from Kansas to Texas.
US midterms 2026 · The Catholic vote
From 59% for Trump to a dead heat
Catholic vote by party, 2024 presidential election and 3 November 2026 midterms
The 2024 figures refer to the presidential race, the 2026 figures to the House of Representatives. Percentages do not add up to 100: the remainder went to other candidates.
| Election | Source | Dem. | Rep. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 presidential | NBC News exit poll | 39% | 59% |
| 2024 presidential | Pew, validated voters | 43% | 55% |
| 2026 midterms | NBC News exit poll, House | 50% | 49% |
Sources: NBC News 2026 exit poll, NBC News 2024 exit poll (Religion News Service) and Pew Research Center 2024 validated voter study (Catholic News Agency). Chart by SIR.
White and Hispanic Catholics, two opposing electorates
The tie has to be read against the national tide: in the popular vote for the House, the Democrats won by some 13 points, according to New York Times estimates. The Catholic centre of gravity moved with the country, yet it remains to the right of it. Ryan Burge of Washington University in St. Louis describes Catholics as a “soft Republican” bloc and puts the result down to the economy: “This is about the economy being bad”. Among white Catholics 56% voted Republican, rising to 63% among those without a college degree, while 65% of Hispanic Catholics and 87% of Black Catholics backed the Democrats. The sharpest swing came among Latino voters as a whole, whose Democratic share rose from 51% to 64%. Back in April, an analysis by OSV News noted that Catholics make up around 15% of the population in Ohio, Maine and Michigan, then the three tightest Senate races, and that in Texas they are largely Latino. Ohio, Maine and Texas have now elected Democratic senators, and Michigan has held on to its own.
US midterms 2026 · The Catholic vote
Two opposing electorates behind the tie
How Catholics voted by ethnicity, education, sex and age. Use the filters or hover over the bars
Each bar shows the share won by the leading party, the only figure published by the source. Exit poll figures may still be revised.
| Group | Share | Party |
|---|---|---|
| All Catholics | 50% | Democrats |
| White Catholics | 56% | Republicans |
| White, no degree | 63% | Republicans |
| Hispanic Catholics | 65% | Democrats |
| Black Catholics | 87% | Democrats |
| Men | 55% | Republicans |
| Women | 54% | Democrats |
| Under 29 | 65% | Democrats |
| Over 65 | 53% | Republicans |
Source: NBC News exit poll, figures reported by America Magazine (4 November 2026). Chart by SIR.
White House and Holy See, a year of conflict
Figures from the Pew Research Center show Trump’s approval among Catholics falling from 47% at the start of 2025 to 30% in early October, and among white Catholics from 52% in January 2026 to 39%.
US midterms 2026 · The Catholic vote
Trump’s approval among Catholics
Approval of the president’s performance, from the start of his term to the eve of the vote
The Iran war began on 28 February 2026. The Pope’s criticism and Trump’s attack on Leo XIV date from April. Click the legend to isolate a series.
| Survey | White Catholics | All Catholics | Hispanic Catholics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Feb 2025 | 59% | 47% | 31% |
| Apr 2025 | 51% | 42% | 26% |
| Jun 2025 | 54% | 43% | 27% |
| Aug 2025 | 48% | 38% | 25% |
| Sep 2025 | 56% | 41% | 23% |
| Jan 2026 | 52% | 39% | 23% |
| Apr 2026 | 49% | 35% | 18% |
| Jul 2026 | 44% | 33% | 20% |
| Sep-Oct 2026 | 39% | 30% | 18% |
Source: Pew Research Center, % of Catholic adults who approve of the way the president is handling his job (latest survey 28 September – 4 October 2026). Chart by SIR.
On 10 April Leo XIV urged the Chaldean bishops to “cry out to the world that whoever is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, never stands on the side of those who yesterday wielded the sword and today drop bombs”. In a post on 12 April Trump wrote that “Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime”, while Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic convert, said it was “very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology”. Even CatholicVote – the conservative advocacy group led for seventeen years by Brian Burch, now US ambassador to the Holy See – said the president’s post had “crossed, again, a line of decorum”. A few days later an Economist/YouGov poll gave the Pope a net favourability rating of +43 among Catholics, against +5 for the president. The morning after the election, Vance wrote: “The reason we lost is the war”. Leo XIV, the first Pope to vote in a US election, cast his ballot by post, while the Holy See Press Office recalled his “belief in the right and the duty of citizens to participate in democratic processes”.
US midterms 2026 · The Catholic vote
Leo XIV and Trump in the eyes of Americans
Net favourability after the clash over the Iran war
| Sample | Figure | Favourable | Unfavourable | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catholics | Leo XIV | 63% | 20% | +43 |
| Catholics | Donald Trump | n/a | n/a | +5 |
| All Americans | Leo XIV | 55% | 24% | +32 |
| All Americans | Donald Trump | 40% | 56% | −16 |
Source: Economist/YouGov poll, 17-20 April 2026, 1,707 adults. Net = favourable minus unfavourable. Chart by SIR.
Bishops, referendums and the pro-life agenda
On 22 October the White House released a video of twelve bishops praying with Trump in the Oval Office. It was also shared by the president’s campaign account. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers insisted that “there has never been a greater president for Catholic Americans than President Trump”. Archbishop Jeffrey Grob of Milwaukee apologised, saying the moment of prayer had been “manipulated”. In the abortion referendums the pro-life side lost three out of four: Virginia and Nevada enshrined abortion rights in their state constitutions, Missouri rejected an attempt to repeal the amendment approved in 2024, and only in Idaho did voters reject a measure that would have created such a right. In Virginia, Bishop Barry Knestout of Richmond and Bishop Michael Burbidge of Arlington said that, unless a court intervenes, the outcome will “embed virtually limitless abortion into the constitution”. For Daniel Rober, a professor of Catholic studies at Sacred Heart University in Connecticut, the results mark “a dead end for the culture warrior approach to Catholic politics” favoured by the bishops’ conference since the late 1990s. Before the vote Archbishop Paul Coakley of Oklahoma City, president of the US Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB), had warned: “Discouragement is not a Christian virtue”.